2016 was the last time the real estate market was balanced between buyers and sellers

Winston-Salem Triad Area August 2023 Home Sale Results

To understand the current real estate market, it’s helpful to look at it from a long-range view. The data under review is for the Triad MLS which includes areas around Winston-Salem and Greensboro as well as areas westward to include Davie, Yadkin, Surry, and Wilkes counties.

Looking back, closings don’t fluctuate tremendously. In 2023, there were 2,002 closings. In 2006, there were 2007 closings. The market crash occurred in 2008, and there was a fairly significant drop in sales. From that point on closings gradually increased until dipping back down in 2022.

The bigger story is in ‘homes available for sale’ (Inventory). In 2008, there were over 14,700 homes available for sale, and they have been decreasing steadily to only a little over 3,000 in August of 2023.

Related to that is ‘months supply of inventory’, which is the theoretical number of months it would take to sell the current inventory. In a market that is balanced between buyers and sellers, there would be 5 to 6 months supply of inventory. In 2008, there was 11.4 months of inventory. The market heavily favored buyers. It kept going down until 2016, which was the last time the market was balanced.

From that point on inventory, months-supply-of-inventory, and correspondingly - ‘days on market’ all decreased steadily to put the current market heavily in favor of sellers. Prices have quite naturally gone up steadily since the last balanced market in 2016.

With inventory at bare bottom levels, it’s highly unlikely that we will see a market crash. If anything changes in favor of buyers, it will be more likely to be a gradual easing. It seems likely that the real estate market will be weighted in favor of sellers for the next few years at least.